PROSPECTS FOR EXPORT FLOW EX UKRAINE

Due to the bad weather condition current year crop in Ukraine showed decrease. Talking generally crop showed decrease 10-20 percent less in compare to 2019/2020 export season but that fact was enough for farmers dramatically to increase prices for their production in hope to get benefits. Because of subject situation price for grains, corn, edible oils, flour, sugar etc went sky high – lots of export contracts been cancelled and new are not signed.

Taking into account above said traditional export season in Ukraine (which usually starts September) up till beg of November have not started yet. It is expected, that farmers will not be ready to keep cargoes at warehouses for long since there is a need to start buying seeds/fertilizers prier next season. Main players/traders expect/hope that prices to go down close to end of November – thus export season in Ukraine will finally be started end of November/very beg of December. Sill considered prices for main export position not to return back to last year position but to increase 15-30% depending on segment.

Our expectations basis current situation:
* carriers for sure will try to implement rate increase for December – so far expectation USD 100-200/20′ USD 200-300/40′;
* December to be “very hot” month in export shipments – thus better to try planning all exports contract way in advance;
* chances that rates will keep rising each month are very high – average increase would be abt USD 50-100/cnt per month;
* due to the fact that import rates are going up very fast – import flow to Ukraine might decrease which will lead to shortage of empty containers;
* crop was not as good as 2019/2020 there would not but since container lines mainly changed vessels to smaller capacity – shortage of space would be faced;